A lightning fast rally in oil prices is reversing. Here's why

16 November, 2017, 02:17 | Author: Franklin Nunez
  • Four pumpjacks are silhouetted as they operate at the site of an oil well outside Williston North Dakota on Feb. 12 2015

Muscat: Crude oil will remain the world's largest source of energy over the next two decades, despite the increasing importance of renewable, said the latest of the Opec World Oil Outlook.

West Texas Intermediate for December delivery fell 37 cents to settle at US$55.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since Nov 2.

Crude prices came under pressure after the EIA revealed a somewhat downbeat outlook for oil demand in its monthly report, forecasting weakness in global demand growth, while warning that global oil markets will be oversupplied through the second quarter of 2018.

West Texas Intermediate crude have both shed about $3 a barrel, or almost 5 percent, from more than two-year highs struck last week.

The IEA estimates that US crude oil is expected to rise until reaching a peak in the 2020s of about 17 million bpd.

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OPEC and some non-OPEC producers including Russian Federation have been withholding production this year to end years of oversupply.

That could mean world oil consumption may not breach 100 million bpd next year as many had expected.

"The oil market faces a hard challenge in the first quarter of 2018, with supply expected to exceed demand by 600,000 barrels a day followed by another, smaller, surplus of 200,000 barrels a day in the second quarter", the IEA said.

USA crude oil and product stockpiles were mostly higher last week against a back drop of rising domestic production and net imports.

The IEA noted that output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was down by 830,000 bpd year-on-year in October, although demand for the group's crude is expected to fall to 32.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter of this year and to 32.0 million bpd in the first quarter of 2018. On the supply side, rising USA output also pressured prices.

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Worldwide energy markets are set for "major upheaval" as the United States cements its status as the world's largest oil and gas producer, while China overtakes it as the biggest oil consumer.

According to the IEA, China will overtake the USA as the largest oil consumer around 2030, and its net imports will reach 13 million barrels per day in 2040.

The deal expires in March 2018 but Opec will meet on November 30 to discuss policy, and it is expected to agree an extension of the cuts.

"Even after some modest reductions to growth, non-OPEC production will follow this year's 700,000-bpd growth with 1.4 million bpd of additional production in 2018 and next year's demand growth will struggle to match this", the IEA said.

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