RBI Given Ammunition To Hold Rates As Indian Economy Recovers

03 December, 2017, 01:17 | Author: Franklin Nunez
  • RBI governor Urjit Patel. India‚Äôs GDP growth rate rebounded to 6.3% in the September quarter after hitting a three-year-low of 5.7% in the June quarter

Reversing a five-quarter slide in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, the economy bounced back from a three-year low to expand by 6.3% in July-September as manufacturing revved up and businesses adjusted to the new GST tax regime. "The latest growth outturn is in line with RBI's recent rhetoric and thus shouldn't move the needle on interest rates".

The Gross Value Added (GVA) which is the total value of goods and services produced in the country after deducting the input cost accelerated 6.1% in the September quarter from 5.6% in the last quarter.

While investment grew by 4.6 per cent in Q2 compared to 1.6 per cent in the first quarter on a year-on-year basis, its share in GDP fell to 27.5 per cent from 29.9 per cent in Q1, indicating that GST-related stress in the economy had not dissipated.

While the rebound in GDP growth in the second quarter can act as a "confidence booster" for the economy, the slowdown in the services sector, including finance, transport and hotels, as well as in agriculture is cause for concern, according to industry bodies and consultants.

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Agricultural growth fell to 1.7 per cent in Q2 from 2.3 per cent in the previous quarter because of a sharp decline in the production of foodgrains during the kharif season.

Government's reforms to push economic growth are working can be seen from that manufacturing has shown robust growth of 7% in Q2 and services at 7.1%.

The growth in the agriculture slowed to 1.7% compared to 2.3% in the last quarter and 4.1% in the same quarter a year ago.

"It is well accepted that investment in infrastructure is essential to growth, it increases the productivity of existing resources and crowds in private investment, which in turn creates more jobs and leads to economic well-being", he said. If it slows down, it is more towards 7 and if it paces up it is more towards 8 per cent growth.

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"My suspicion is that a lot of the claims of the impact of demonetisation in agriculture simply does not account for the presence of such relationships in the sector", he said. The country's fiscal deficit crossed 96 per cent of Budget estimates at October-end.

Government spending slowed in the quarter, growing 4.1 per cent, as against 17.1 per cent in the June quarter.

Earlier this month, rating agency Moody's upgraded India's credit rating to Baa2 from Baa3 and changed its India outlook to positive from neutral.

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