IMF Raises Global Growth Forecasts

23 January, 2018, 02:03 | Author: Franklin Nunez
  • IMF predicts India will surpass China's growth rate in 2018

The International Monetary Fund raised its estimate for economic growth in Canada this year as it said USA tax cuts are expected to help boost global economic growth. That would be the strongest year for global growth since 2011 and represents an upward revision of 0.2 percent since the IMF's forecast in October.

This short-term growth boost will have positive, albeit short-lived, output spillovers for United States trade partners, but will also likely widen the U.S. current account deficit, strengthen the dollar, and affect global investment flows, the IMF official said.

U.S. president Donald Trump's tax reforms were expected to boost investment in the world's largest economy and help its main trading partners, the International Monetary Fund said.

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As a result, it revised up its global growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 by 0.2 per cent to 3.9 per cent, noting the revision reflected increased global growth momentum and the expected impact of the recently approved tax policy changes in the US. "Growth in Spain, which has risen above potential, has been slightly reduced for 2018, reflecting effects of growing political uncertainty about trust and demand", report said. "A possible trigger is a faster-than-expected increase in advanced economy core inflation and interest rates as demand accelerates", it stated.

The IMF's latest report cited possible trade barriers and regulatory shake-ups as risks to growth as the United Kingdom seeks a new relationship with Europe after Brexit and the USA renegotiates its free trade treaty with neighbours Mexico and Canada.

"Global growth has been accelerating since 2016, and all signs point to a continuous strengthening of that growth", International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde said during a news conference at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. The group now projects GDP will increase by 2.7 percent in 2018 and by 2.5 percent in 2019. The region continues to account for over half of world growth. On the upside, the cyclical rebound could prove stronger in the near term as the pickup in activity and easier financial conditions reinforce each other, the report said.

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The boost to USA growth will be significant.

The IMF said even though the economic "rebound could prove stronger in the near term", the risks to the global forecast remain tilted to the downside. "In an environment of financial market optimism, ensuring financial resilience is imperative".

She asserted said " Global growth has been accelerating since 2016, and all signs point to a continuing strengthening of this growth".This is why she has charged global political leaders to guard against the risk of complacency in the management of their economies. "Multilateral cooperation remains vital for securing the global recovery", it said.

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