US Federal budget deficit projected to top $1T in 2020

11 April, 2018, 12:44 | Author: Chad Mckenzie
  • Analysis: Tax cuts, spending to raise deficit to $1 trillion by 2019

A new report warns that the U.S. is heading for $1 trillion annual federal deficits, and the Congressional Budget Office says that's going to radically raise the nation's debt in just a decade. CBO also projects 3.3 percent GDP growth in 2018 and 2.4 percent in 2019 - both higher estimates than CBO forecast a year ago. The increase is due, the CBO says, to the Republicans' tax cuts.

CBO says the federal deficit is projected to be $804 billion this year and will blow through $1 trillion by 2020, which is earlier than previously projected.

The CBO is now projecting a cumulative deficit of $11.7 trillion over the 2018-2027 period, which is $1.6 trillion larger than its projection in June.

"The largest effects on GDP over the decade stem from the tax act", according to the CBO.

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The CBO typically releases its yearly forecast in January, but Monday's projections were delayed to reflect major tax legislation enacted in December and a subsequent two-year budget agreement.

The POTUS has indeed surprised the country, as according to the CBS' estimate, the 2018 deficit is $242 billion more than the office calculated past year.

Those deficits will quickly build, doubling the government's main pool of debt over the next decade.

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The national debt is on track to approach 100 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2028, said the nonpartisan CBO, which analyzes legislation for Congress. Deficits would grow to $1.5tn by 2028 - and could exceed $2tn if the tax cuts are fully extended and if Washington does not cut spending.

The agency notes that its projections, especially those for economic growth, however, are "more uncertain than usual this year because they incorporate estimates of the economic effects of the recent changes in fiscal policy", which are themselves uncertain. The rush has been to blame this news on the GOP's tax cuts, . The deficit will average 4.9 percent of GDP over the 2019-2028 period, exceeding average economic growth over the same period by almost a percentage point. While some members of Congress care about reducing deficits, it is now clear that the Republican majority in both chambers and the Republican in the White House have little interest in being responsible stewards of the federal purse.

Today, unemployment is less than 4 percent and the economy has been humming along with hardly a hiccup for several consecutive years. If lawmakers renew tax cuts expected to expire under the new tax law, there would be "even larger increases in debt". It is hard to imagine any cuts to Social Security, Medicare or other public programs, even though they make up a good portion of the budget - That would be a "political non-starter".

Federal debt held by the public is already quite high by historical standards.

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"The sun rises in the east, and tax cuts result in less revenues".

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